DILMI’S “THEORY” KEEPS PROMISING FILLY AGAINST HER OWN AGE AND SEX

NACIM Dilmi says it was quite a difficult decision settling on the Group 2 The Roses for his promising filly Probability Theory at Doomben on Saturday.

Probability Theory (Rachel King), a daughter of Microphone, puts her Queensland Oaks aspirations on the line, stepping up from her latest 1300m Midway Benchmark 72 Handicap victory at the Kensington track to 2000m.

Wyong-based Dilmi, with 31 winners already in his first season as Domeland’s head trainer, also accepted with the filly for the Group 3 Magic Millions Fillies and Mares Plate over a shorter 1600m.

“It was definitely a difficult decision which way to go,” Dilmi said today.

“The 1600m was probably the best race in terms of distance.

“But she would have been against older mares, whereas The Roses is against her own age and sex.

“In the end, I felt it was better to go to the 2000m to test her for the Group 1 Oaks (2200m) at Eagle Farm in a fortnight.

“Probability Theory is a promising filly heading in the right direction, and is bred to run the distance.

“Rachel (King) has ridden her in both her wins this preparation, and likes her.

“Whilst she is going from 1300m on April 27, she did have a tick-over trial at Randwick on May 15 and won it against older horses, lengthening nicely when challenged.

“I’m confident she will run well on Saturday, but if she doesn’t race up to our expectations there are other options during the Brisbane carnival.

“Irrespective of what happens on Saturday, she will stay in Queensland and can come back to 1600m.”

Probability Theory is Dilmi’s first Brisbane runner but not his first in Queensland, and he made many trips there for the winter carnival when looking after James Cummings’ horses when he was training for Godolphin.

And of course he is hoping the result will be the same as when he won a race on the Gold Coast Polytrack with Humanity on May 2.

Ridden by Jaden Lloyd, the UK import carried 60kg and bolted away with a Benchmark 62 Handicap (2000m) on the synthetic track.

“Not only was it my first Queensland runner, but also Domeland’s first Queensland winner,” Dilmi said.

Dilmi flies to Queensland tomorrow to saddle Probability Theory on Saturday, and also will have a Royal Randwick representative on Saturday.

He starts Is It Spectacular (Andrew Adkins) in the Midway Benchmark 72 Handicap (1400m).

The Dundeel three-year-old won a Class 1 Handicap (1500m) at Newcastle on March 31 before finishing eighth to subsequent winner Superfabulistic in a Benchmark 72 Handicap (1600m) at Warwick Farm on May 6.

In between he won a 1000m trial at home on April 24, when partnered by Adkins.

STORY JOHN CURTIS, MAY 21, 2026 - PICS BRADLEY PHOTOS