PROMISING WYONG FILLY A CHANCE TO BACK UP IN SPRING STAKES

WYONG trainer Nacim Dilmi is considering backing up last Saturday’s Hawkesbury winner Probability Theory for a shot at Group 3 glory at Newcastle on Saturday.

Dilmi initially didn’t plan to nominate the daughter of Microphone for the $250,000 Spring Stakes (1600m) at The Hunter metropolitan stand-alone meeting, but changed his mind when he inspected her around lunchtime.

“We got her out of her box, and she has definitely come on since the Hawkesbury race,” he said this afternoon.

“I thought it might have been too late to put in an entry, but fortunately they were extended.

“We’ll see how she does in the next couple of days before making a decision about backing up.

“I’ve got Zac Lloyd on standby to ride the filly in case we decide to run.

“It looks like being a tough race, but it would be nice to get some black type so early in her career and then give her a break and look ahead to the autumn.”

A $40,000 purchase at last year’s Inglis Classic yearling sale in Sydney, Probability Theory didn’t race as a two-year-old and has now won two of her first three starts; the last two consecutively.

Probability Theory was unplaced on debut over 1100m at Scone in September, and has since been successful twice at Hawkesbury; firstly in a Provincial Maiden Plate (1300m) on October 23 and then a Midway Benchmark 64 Handicap (1300m) last Saturday.

“She isn’t a big filly but is promising and definitely heading in the right direction,” Dilmi said.

Probability Theory was Dilmi’s eighth winner since taking over as Domeland’s private trainer on the Central Coast, having celebrated a metropolitan breakthrough with Oceanfront, who clinched a hat-trick at Royal Randwick last Tuesday.

Fillies have a good record in Newcastle Jockey Club’s feature three-year-old event, especially since the race was moved from the Cup carnival in September to mid-November.

The “girls” have won five of the last six runnings – and the last four in a row – of the Spring Stakes.

Asiago scored in 2019, then Festival Dancer (2021), Pierossa (2022), Genzano (2023) and Snitzanova last year.

Whilst Spring Stakes noms have been extended until 11 am Tuesday, Newcastle Jockey Club received 27 entries for the $1m Group 2 The Hunter (1300m), 22 for the $300,000 Listed The Beauford (2300m), and 14 for the Max Lees 2YO Classic (900m), for which entries also were left open until 11am tomorrow.

Bookmakers have made Coal Crusher the early $4 favorite for The Hunter as the evergreen Sydney eight-year-old fronts up to race at The Hunter fixture for the fourth year in a row.

He won a Benchmark 88 Handicap (1300m) in 2022, won The Hunter the following year and then ran third to subsequent Group 1 winner Briasa last year.

Coal Crusher ran an excellent fourth to Jimmysstar in the $3m Russell Balding Stakes (1300m) at Randwick on November 1.

He has 58.5kg in Saturday’s renewal of The Hunter, 0.5kg less than when placed last year.

In a wide market, Future History and Maison Louis were $6 joint favorites for The Beauford, Grand Prairie headed Spring Stakes betting at $2.80, and colts Elio (Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott) and Seeiaye (Peter Snowden) were $4.50 co-favorites for the Max Lees.

All 14 current entries for the Max Lees are unraced two-year-olds.

Story John Curtis, November 10, 2025 - Pics Bradley Photos