NO RUSH WITH PROBABILITY THEORY
NACIM Dilmi says he won’t rush stepping yesterday’s Rosehill Gardens winner Probability Theory up in distance just yet.
Whilst he considers the talented mare will manage further than the 1400m of the Benchmark 78 Handicap, it’s “steady as she goes” for the time being.
Given a great ride by Tommy Berry, Probability Theory ($11) overhauled front-runner Rose Aye ($8.50) to boost her already impressive record to five wins from nine starts.
Though the four-year-old daughter of Microphone drew the outside in an eight-horse field, Berry had her quickly on the march when the barriers opened.
He crossed to take up the running, then steadied to settle in third placing on the fence when Rose Aye’s rider was keen to lead.
“You don’t give the top jockeys like Tommy instructions,” Dilmi said today.
“All I mentioned to him was that Probability Theory had good gate speed, and for him to use that to try to get a nice spot in the leading group.
“He gave her a superb ride.
“It was terrific for all our staff to see the mare get back into the winning list in a Saturday race in town.
“It has been a quiet run since getting a double at Newcastle a month ago.”
Probability Theory was Wyong-based Dilmi’s 44th career winner, having posted 36 in his initial season after setting a goal of getting 20 when he took as Domeland’s trainer on the Central Coast.
“I’m sure Probability Theory will get further than the 1400m because she is out of a So You Think mare,” he said.
“I threw her in the deep end during the Brisbane winter carnival when she went from winning over 1300m at the Kensington track to the 2000m of the Group 2 The Roses at Doomben.
“She ran well when seventh to Fireball Miss (subsequently placed in the Group 1 Queensland Oaks at Eagle Farm), and went for a break afterwards.
“This was only her second run back, and I made a mistake running her first-up at 1400m midweek at Warwick Farm last month.
“Obviously she wasn’t quite ready for that distance, and I didn’t hesitate going from a midweek to a Saturday race second up with that run behind her.
“Tommy (Berry) recommended keeping her at 1400m-1500m for another run before going over further ground.
“He said she had just peaked on her run over the last 50m or so yesterday, and no doubt she will take further improvement.”
Dilmi considered taking $40,000 yearling buy Probability Theory to Melbourne for the Inglis Bracelet (1600m) at the Oaks meeting at Flemington last Thursday, but wisely chose to stay at home for the Rosehill assignment.
STORY JOHN CURTIS, NOVEMBER 8, 2026 - PICS BRADLEY PHOTOS
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