DILMI’S THEORY TO STAY AT HOME WITH TALENTED MARE
NACIM Dilmi waited until lunchtime yesterday before making a decision not to head to Melbourne with Probability Theory.
Instead of sending her south for the Inglis Bracelet (1600m) against her own sex at Flemington today, he has kept her home to contest the Benchmark 78 Handicap (1400m) at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday, and Tommy Berry takes the mount.
“I gave a lot of thought to the Melbourne race before cancelling the float, but there were a couple of factors which led to the decision to stay home,” Dilmi said today.
“Firstly we had to beat the favorite Sass Appeal (who ran second at odds-on), who was dropping sharply in class from the Group 1 Empire Stakes (1600m) at Flemington last Saturday.
“Even though I know she will manage 1600m and further, I was a bit concerned about going to that distance second up.
“To make the trip financially worthwhile, we would have needed to run “Top 2”.
“It wasn’t a black type race either, and in the end I felt it was best to stay home and go to 1400m again at her second run back.”
Probability Theory, who holds a 50 per cent win record (four from eight starts), was favorite first-up when fifth (beaten two lengths) to Amreekiyah in a 1400m Benchmark 78 at Warwick Farm on October 21.
“There were a lot of expectations that day and, in retrospect, perhaps she was a bit underdone for the 1400m,” Dilmi said.
“She had been going really well leading into the race, and has come through it well, and Tommy (Berry) was keen to ride her.
“Rachel King has been the mare’s regular rider, but is riding in Melbourne and Tommy has won on Probability Theory (her first win in a 1300m Provincial Maiden Plate at Hawkesbury in October last year).
“She is flying, and definitely ready to run well.”
In an open race Probability Theory this evening was at $7 with TAB.com.au, with Victorian visitor Cashout (Dylan Gibbons) the $2.90 favorite.
A four-year-old daughter of Microphone, Probability Theory was a $40,000 purchase by Domeland at the 2024 Inglis Classic yearling sale.
She has already returned more than three times that initial outlay.
Dilmi also starts I Am Carrot ($8.50) at Rosehill in the Midway Benchmark 72 Handicap (1200m) in spite of his awkward draw, and on this occasion Gibbons is aboard.
The four-year-old son of Castelvecchio also resumed at the same Warwick Farm meeting on October 21 when ninth to Youre Not The King (who won again at Flemington today) in a 1300m Benchmark 72 Handicap.
“He had 60.5kg that day, Jason Collett rode him and was happy enough with how he went,” Dilmi said.
“We are able to use the grass at Wyong again, and both Probability Theory and I Am Carrot have had a couple of gallops on it.
“Dylan (Gibbons) is riding in great form and hopefully both I Am Carrot and Probability Theory can bounce back.”
. Newcastle trainers Paul Perry and Nathan Doyle were the provincial winners at today’s return Gosford meeting.
Perry landed the Midway Class 1 Handicap (1200m) with Sun To Me ($8), and Doyle the Provincial Maiden Handicap (1600m) with Cool Summer Nights ($7).
Regan Bayliss rode Cosmic Force four-year-old Sun To Me, who posted his second win at his 13th start, and Ash Morgan partnered four-year-old mare Cool Summer Nights, who broke through at her seventh start after four minor placings.
Leading Kembla Grange trainers Mitch Beer and George Carpenter were successful at the Sapphire Coast meeting with $1.75 favorite Yes He Reigns (Pierre Boudvillain) in the Maiden Handicap (1200m).
STORY JOHN CURTIS, NOVEMBER 5, 2026 - PICS BRADLEY PHOTOS
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