DILMI’S OAKS “THEORY” IN ALL PROBABILITY COMES UP TRUMPS

THE probability is that she will be a Queensland Oaks candidate at Brisbane’s winter carnival.

But first Wyong trainer Nacim Dilmi wants to get Monday’s Kensington public holiday meeting out of the way with his promising filly Probability Theory.

Dilmi also accepted with Probability Theory in the 3&4YO Benchmark 72 Handicap (1400m) at Royal Randwick’s Anzac Day program tomorrow, but opted to wait a couple more days.

Rachel King partnered Probability Theory for the first time when the three-year-old on resumption won a Midway Benchmark 68 Handicap (1200m) at Gosford on April 9, and stays with her in the Midway Benchmark 72 Handicap (1300m) at the Kensington track.

The Gosford victory was her third at only her fifth start.

“I don’t think Monday’s race is all that much easier than tomorrow, but it’s a Midway and a smaller field, and the 1300m suits best at this stage of her preparation,” Dilmi said today.

“All going well on Monday, we will go on to the Dark Jewel Classic at the Scone Cup carnival next month and if she races well there, then a Queensland Oaks start is definitely in contention.”

The $250,000 Group 3 Dark Jewel Classic (1400m) at the Scone metropolitan meeting on May 16 is for three-year-old fillies, and is run under Quality conditions.

The $700,000 Group 1 Oaks (2200m), also for three-year-old fillies at set weights, will be run at Eagle Farm on June 6.

“Probability Theory has already more than repaid her purchase price,” Dilmi said.

“She cost $40,000 as an Inglis Classic yearling two years ago, and has now earned just over $86,000.

“Any win from now on is a bonus.”

Probability Theory is a daughter of Microphone, and her dam Actuarial’s pedigree strongly suggests she will handle a middle distance.

Actuarial is by dual Cox Plate winner and Melbourne Cup placegetter and international star So You Think, and her dam was sired by staying influence Pentire.

“Rachel (King) was impressed with Probability Theory when she won at Gosford and, like myself, feels she is a filly with a nice future,” Dilmi said.

In his first season of training in charge of the Domeland horses on the Central Coast, Dilmi made it 26 wins when Emerald Hills scored at Newcastle yesterday.

The four-year-old daughter of Kermadec made it two wins from four starts in the Provincial Benchmark 64 Handicap (1850m), atoning for her previous defeat at Hawkesbury on March 26 as an odds-on favorite.

“It’s Emerald Hills’ first racing preparation, and I might have erred by running her at Hawkesbury,” Dilmi said.

“I trialled her subsequently at Gosford on April 13, and she went back yesterday to Newcastle, where she had won a 1600m Maiden in late February at her second start.”

Dilmi has first-up long odds winner Mane Character engaged at the same track (Gosford) tomorrow in the Benchmark 64 Handicap (1200m), but says she isn’t a definite starter.

The four-year-old daughter of Written By at her first start since October was at bolter’s odds ($61) when she defeated favorite Ready Made Heir in a Provincial Maiden Handicap (1200m) on April 9.

“I’ll wait and see how many scratchings there are in the morning, but we might wait a bit longer for another provincial race,” Dilmi said.

. Fellow Wyong trainer Sara Ryan missed out winning today’s $200,000 Big Dance Eligibility Tamworth Cup (1400m) with well-supported Phearson ($4.60), who ran a gallant second to Formal Display ($2.50), but still returned home a winner.

Her three-year-old Headwater filly Waveton (Chad Schofield) broke through in the Super Maiden Plate (1000m) at her third start.

Ryan was the sole provincial winner at the feature country meeting.

STORY JOHN CURTIS, APRIL 24, 2026 - PICS BRADLEY PHOTOS